Hey Everyone,

This is a less formal continuation of my Future of work series. Freelancers being hit by Generative A.I. isn’t a topic that has been covered very well to date in 2023. Let’s look at some of the studies, issues and how all encompassing this topic actually is in today’s article.

I watch the stock market, and I cannot say freelance marketplaces like Fiverr (Fiverr is down 24% year to date in 2023) or Upwork have been doing so well in a year where A.I. has signaled is own bull market.

ChatGPT signaled less demand in 2023 for thousands of different kinds of freelancers and self-employed specialists. In 2024, it’s likely to only get worse as new agents, copilots, chatbots and GPTs arrive.

How much are Freelancers being hurt by A.I?

Yet a plethora of A.I. tools also boosted what the remaining ones (Freelancers) and what they could do being even more productive and what they could accomplish in less time. With these shifts however, this doesn’t mean they made more revenue (more on that later). Even in the Newsletters around A.I. I saw this. Most of those behiiv AI rundowns sound a lot like ChatGPT and other A.I. tools in a kind of synthetic list of things. Coincidence?

Freelancer platforms were like Ed-tech (Chegg still chugging along) or Coding hub platforms (sorry Stack Overflow), a bit stuck. They had no choice but to try to build on the hype and adapt to the hype. Those that protested the wave, had very significant layoffs as the case with Stack Overflow. What happens when LLMs impact game development, where a lot of freelancers exist, that Microsoft is likely to lead with its titanic acquisition of Activision and financing of OpenAI, where they continue to earn 75% of their profits?

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Fiverr even did a marketing campaign around “AI Took my Job” (image at the top). This triggered me so much I took to to my community CHAT to debate. We got some interesting replies.

I ask the community tons of things around A.I. each week, download Substack’s app to follow along.

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It gets even more complicated for what this means for the future of work. If Generative A.I. is supposed to “democratize A.I.”, why are so many white-collar folk starting to get worried? Workers with the most exposure to AI like ChatGPT tend to be women, white or Asian, higher earners and have a college degree, Pew found. LinkedIn found that young people will also be very much impacted relative to other generations, a fact that was buried deep and far into their study that nobody would likely notice.

We used to think A.I. could replace low level office workers, many of whom are freelancers by the way, or temporary “contract workers”. That traditional list according to HubSpot of jobs A.I. can and will replace more easily:

Telemarketing

Bookkeeping Clerks

Compensation and Benefits Managers

Receptionists

Couriers

Proofreaders

Computer Support Specialists

Market Research Analysts

Advertising Salespeople

Retail Salespeople

Freelancing is Becoming More Popular

Technically, there are 73.3 million freelancers in the U.S. in 2023. This number is almost 3 million, up from 70.4 million in 2022. Freelancing appears to have grown in the last decade, hence all of these freelancer platforms.

Ironically, the growth in popularity of freelancing has only been magnified by the progress of technology. But there’s a catch, what happens when that tech begins to break your business model and erode demand for your services as a freelancer or freelance services platform provider? Is it really that easy to pivot?

The evolution of GitHub Copilot in the years (Semafor) since Microsoft acquired them has been pretty significant. But even with GitHub Copilot and other coding advancing quickly, some younger developers are starting to get impacted at big firms and major technology companies. Just as LinkedIn’s engineering team.

Microsoft wants us to see (GitHub) copilot as a complement to developers rather than a replacement, but as the tech keeps evolving, will that actually be true in the near to mid-term future?

A lot of software developers are freelancers too by the way.

Fiverr called their campaign: “The campaign “Power of Humanity”. In an era of Generative A.I. is humanity really benefiting though? Does making or experiencing a custom GPT improve my humanity? This freelancer will do this for you, all for $30.

As it evolves, synthetic media will certainly be disrupting more of the jobs of journalists, the ultimate of freelancers. Even marketing, advertising and business development jobs eventually aren’t safe. How about Creators and designers? Yep. Tools like Midjourney DALL-E 3 and AI generated Creators are just starting to come into their own. So good, they are stoking artist revolts and copyright lawsuits that fail on arrival. In late stage Capitalism, huge companies have the power, not the people.

What would HubSpot’s list (above) look like circa 2025? It’s going to include a lot of freelancers. There are actually studies to prove it. AI Creators, i.e. those who leverage A.I. to create, are replaceable freelancers in and of themselves, so why do we do it? We do we go up against A.I.? The future of work will be both augmented and disrupted by these technologies with Cloud providers reaping a lot of the profits of the changes.

Content writing and marketing freelancers? Good luck competing against the A.I. writers of the future. Hobbyist writers and niche writers trying to build a revenue in a Newsletter? You are competing with the subscriptions of A.I. (subscription saturation at large) to get consumers and readers to pay for your work.

Read Fiverr Campaign

In September, 2023 Fiverr thought its campaign hit home to what freelancers are thinking.

Fiverr Launched a Brand Campaign “Power of Humanity” Celebrating Human Ingenuity in Harmony with AI

I found this part a bit perplexing.

“Power of Humanity”

In ten or fifteen years, it’s unlikely humans themselves will be making videos any longer or in at all the same way as they do today. I wonder if those YouTube Creators realize this in 2023? All those freelancers around video production and distribution and advertising are going to get disrupted as LLMs improve with video and multi-modal production.

Unfortunately the A.I. trend on the labor force coincides with larger macro-economic and demographic issues. Indeed, with people refusing to start families (plummeting fertility rates) already becoming a serious issue for consumer economies in the 2020s, what indeed will be the power of people in an age of automation? Automation will need to increase to offset the changes to capitalism.

Give it to us straight, Fiverr?

“AI took my job…to the next level” – for now.

In my Chat on the topic, Harpreet (whom I respect greatly) said:

“I think freelancers and solopreneurs are a segment that has, and will continue to, reap the biggest quality of life improvements due to AI. ESPECIALLY, those who are technical and know how to code.”

I wonder though, doesn’t AI favor the no-code freelancers in theory? AI creates new jobs and disrupts some old ones, the cycle of technology continues. OpenAI’s GPTs have a no-code perspective, but they don’t look very fun to create.

Cloud computing and Advertising leaders can use Generative A.I. to accelerate their moats and drive even more advertising revenue and cloud growth while downsizing their employee size all in the name of efficiency. This is what BigTech demonstrated in 2023 in actual terms.

This is in fact, exactly what Microsoft did in 2023, it’s their playbook. What do they care about young people prioritizing being self-employed, freelancers and starting SMBs?

Lobbyists for these companies are everywhere and their posts are glorified on BigTech owned channels like LinkedIn, about how we perceive A.I. But do they actually care about people or just want to ride the A.I. boom? BigTech companies mentioning AI multiple times on Earnings calls, is now the oldest trick in the book. A mind of corporate scam to manufacture A.I. hype for shareholder profit. Meanwhile my trending timeline on X is dominated by things like “OpenAI” and “ChatGPT”.

When and if AI takes your job, will you upskill and shrug it off? What if it reduces demand for your skills and services? Millennials and even GenX know a thing or two about career pivots and having to adjust in a downturn. But what about younger Millennials and GenZ who enter the workforce perhaps as a freelancer and never experienced this? They may face more career disruption and job redundancy in their lifetime than any of us, simply because the pace of technological automation is going to accelerate in the 2030s and 2040s respectively and especially.

Most people don’t know how to code or consult or freelance, it’s an acquired career choice and one that doesn’t necessarily pay very well, unless it’s just a side gig or unless you are very qualified. A lot of freelancers are just scraping by. Freelancers are among the most vulnerable in an era of ChatGPT. Because they pay their bills by volume of a repetitive task that they are really good at or uniquely qualified to do. But that’s the sweet spot of what Generative A.I. is going to get really good at.

According to Upwork (July, 2023), these are the highest paying Freelance skills and jobs:

19 highest-paying freelance jobs

Public relations manager

Business consultant

Media buyer

Photographer

Artificial intelligence (AI) professional

Data analyst

Copywriter

Project manager

Digital marketing consultant

Editor

Mobile app developer

Social media manager

Accountant

Web designer

Web developer

Programmer

Videographer

Podcast host

Virtual assistant

Some of these fall into high-risk categories for automation in the years ahead with the impactful of GPTs and Generative A.I. A surprisingly high number of these actually when you start to cross-reference.

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The Stranglehold that “AI is Good for Us”

I’d estimate by 2025, AI will encroach on 50% of those on the above list, but by 2030, it will be close to 95%. I have trouble believing in the “power of humanity” given what we have seen in 2023 both legally and how dominant commercial actors have become even in the media and news in the industry.

But what if A.I. is actually toxic to our humanity? What if it’s not good for our livelihood, what is our recourse? And how will late stage capitalism evolve in such a scenario of it becomes dominant?

What if it doesn’t empower or democratize tools for us to make a living with?

Fiverr for its part had no choice but to celebrate it. They have new AI categories on Fiverr’s marketplace and with all the incredible growth in demand for AI services, they had to try and sell it. So they released a unique AI matching tool called “Fiverr Neo.” Additionally, the company launched a dedicated AI Content Hub to help freelancers and businesses navigate how to implement AI into their products, workflow and services. How very original. This includes the Explorers Hub, meant to help businesses less familiar with AI, and the Tech Hub which targets businesses more experienced with this technology.

I for one, am not clapping.

Fiverr Neo

A world stuffed with chabots, copilots and GPTs isn’t a more uplifting or convenient one. But don’t tell the freelancers that they shouldn’t adopt AI to keep up. They are so vulnerable to disruption, they have little choice but to follow the dictates of the A.I. overlords.

I feel as bad for freelancers who must contest with A.I as I do writers in an era where consumers no longer like to read due to algorithmic decision making on their app usage. People are stuck, adapt or die. With BigTech of Silicon Valley profiting like its the biggest pyramid scheme since the beginning of the internet or mobile. Generative A.I. is going to wipe out and create a lot of value simultaneously. It’s going to be tricky for some of us to negotiate.

For every success story of a Freelancer or writer or content marketing freelancer incorporating AI into their services, I’ll show you five who got disrupted.

Both Freelancers and Creators are vulnerable to AI in the decade ahead. Creators themselves are the ultimate self-employed freelancers.

By now in 2023, we know that most “Creator Funds” by BigTech and social media, outside of YouTube were a scam. So how will Silicon Valley treat freelancers and gig-economy workers in an era of self-driving cars and copilots do you think? How about warehouse workers in an era of humanoid robots that is coming?

Forget freelancers, and what happens when A.I. really does come for white-collar jobs? People in academia, management, finance, government and so forth? It is after all, somewhat inevitable perhaps not however on the accelerated timeline of these overzealous economists of all the various studies we have read in 2023 about the impact of A.I. on jobs and the labor force.

Even knowing the jobs most exposed to ChatGPT, there will be other jobs that are exposed to future iterations of Generative A.I. and not just from OpenAI. AI Enthusiasts and economists have to take it with a grain of salt of course, but OpenAI themselves found around 80 per cent of the US workforce could have at least 10 percent of their work tasks affected by GPTs, or Generative Pre-trained Transformers. If you were a freelancer and your core skills are disrupted, there goes your income. How does that compound and spread in the next twenty years do you suppose?

“Around 19 per cent of workers meanwhile could see at least 50 per cent of their tasks impacted.”

Read the Paper

Paper: “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (August, 2023)

Freelancers using A.I. could potentially disrupt those who are not rather quickly in 2023 and 2024. Typically these are younger folk using tools and adapting more easily than older people or those who cannot afford the subscriptions. It’s not to say the quality of their work is higher or more creative. Just to say that with A.I., there’s more bang for your buck.

If Generative Pretrained Transformers (GPTs) actually do become General Purpose Technologies, it’s going to be a lot more than just freelancers who are worrying about the future of their jobs.

It is debatable and this claim by OpenAI researchers is pretty far-fetched though. It’s way too early to say GPTs are going to become general purpose technologies. BigTech CEOs claiming AI is like electricity or fire comes to mind.

Another study revealed that after ChatGPT’s introduction, freelancers like copywriters and graphic designers on online gig platforms experienced a notable decrease not just in job opportunities but also in earnings. And this is really a key point, A.I. doesn’t necessarily increase revenue for those remaining freelancers even as it reduces demand for many various freelancer jobs.

Read the Paper

A lot of freelancers will still be working, they will just be making actually less money in an era of A.I. What they offer just won’t have the same value as before. Think of a writer submitting their books to Amazon who now faces an avalanche of synthetic AI created “fake books”? The lack of good copyright protections is highly problematic when we let ChatGPT loose into the wild. Sure it makes OpenAI or Microsoft or U.S. look good, but what about the damage to society it causes?

Don’t tell that to writers, artists, designers, photographers and culture enthusiasts who already saw their grants and funds slashed during the pandmeic. Now they face the A.I. apocalypse where their core creative expression, is put at risk at least in financial terms. Their voice in the mainstream media is like a whisper, or more like a whimper.

A new breed of AI freelancer is saying this trend is incredible (they have juicy incentives to say this), but if you are pure-play freelancer before the era of A.I., you might be finding this trend super depressing, annoying or both. You may have also left the freelancing industry to try something better because you see the writing on the wall in your former area of specialty. Adapt or die, a familiar refrain in the age of A.I. we are becoming re-acquainted with.

Creatives used to think their work and industries would never be touched by A.I. A few years later, it’s clear everyone from Hollywood writers to Actors being digitally cloned, well they will be replaced. It’s only a matter of time. Time for one generation of people to fade, while another takes over, just a little more cyborg.

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Future Considerations of all Things “GPT”

Generative A.I. could lead to a quicker decline of the Middle Class and a great discrepancy between wages and the cost of housing, inflation and the rising costs of things like healthcare, retirement and well, relatively lower chances of having a stable career no matter how educated you are for GenZ, Alpha and future cohorts.

Freelancing gigs and jobs come and go, but the robotic overlords of this trend don’t favor workers, worker rights or people who aim to be self-employed. Automation is coming, and we are being asked by BigTech, to cheer 🎉. What a party, unless it costs you your job 💼 and livelihood.

Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds the potential to either complement knowledge workers by increasing their productivity or substitute them entirely. And why aren’t we talking about it? The world prefers dramatic topics like x-risks and the commercialization of this trend by a few blessed startups like OpenAI.

As an LLM, dialogue-based AI, GPT is specifically trained using large amount of text to predict and generate text. What will they be able to do by 2030, is anybody’s guess. Even for the so-called “scientists”, it’s becoming harder to predict even five years ahead in A.I.’s trajectory. Generative A.I. has to be seen as a breakthrough in what was a rather stagnant A.I. industry pre 2017. But is it a boon or a curse for professionals really?

AI and its impact on the labor markets are fine in a boom period, but as consumer savings are dwindling fast at the end of 2023, revenge spending won’t save them from the future impacts of AI. Small businesses the real employer of most of America, might have a particularly hard time. Small businesses employ 61.7 million Americans, totaling 46.4% of private sector employees.

As for AI’s impact on industries and jobs, the negative effects on labor outcomes may be exacerbated as the technology becomes more prevalent and penetrates additional industries, as the authors of this paper point out. It’s just the beginning of GPTs, and even if GPTs aren’t real “general purpose technologies”, their impact on work might become significant. Many Freelancers in 2023, already experienced the brunt of the first wave.

The opinions and perspectives on this seem to be about as diverse as the different kinds of freelancers being impacted by Generative A.I. heading in 2024:

Leave a comment

Featured Peer Newsletter to Follow

I felt this Newsletter had interesting parallels with today’s topic. The “Generative Generation” by [Follow him on Linkedin]

Exit Poll

You don’t have to be a freelancer to care about this topic, you may not actually be worried at all. This depends on your skills, your career path and your age.

Postscript

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Layoffs Specifically Due to AI

I think in the coming years we will see layoffs directly due to A.I. BigTech will continue to lobby and do public relations to emphasize the new jobs A.I. will create and try to distract from this.

By the Numbers

Some 44% of companies surveyed by ResumeBuilder said the use of artificial intelligence would lead to layoffs next year.

In November, 2023, ResumeBuilder surveyed 750 business leaders at companies that currently or plan to use AI in 2024.

Read the Survey

Key findings:

53% of companies use AI, and 24% plan to start in 2024

37% of companies using AI say the technology replaced workers this year

44% of companies surveyed say AI will lead to layoffs in 2024

96% of companies hiring in 2024 say candidates will benefit from having AI skills

83% say AI skills will help current employees retain their jobs

That layoffs will occur in 2024 due to AI adoption is one of the least talked about AI risks not covered by the mainstream media. Why is that?

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Applications like ChatGPT, GitHub Copilit, 365 Copilot, Midjourney, Stable Diffusion and dozens of ours are just the first wave of LLM based tools. Nvidia, Salesforce and even Google have been very active investing in Generative A.I. startups in 2023 especially. Stability A.I. recently got funding from Intel, of all people. And ElevenLabs is on track to get more funding from a16z. This is really just the beginning.

The impact on professionals, jobs, career paths and freelancers in particular looks very significant. Employers also want people who have AI literacy and skills. The old paper I have summarized by Goldman Sachs previously estimated that AI could replace as many as 300 million full-time jobs over the next decade. New kinds of jobs and boosts to productivity could also result in an economic boom according to some economists.

Best Kept Secret of 2023

So forget existential risks of A.I. or the threat of authoritarian dystopias, he impact of A.I. on jobs is already pretty marked. In the Survey by Resumebuilder, of companies currently using AI, 37% said workers were laid off in 2023 because they were no longer needed due to the company’s use of AI.

I would assume a not so insignificant number of those were freelancers.

The impact of A.I. on jobs isn’t so clear also due to the evolving and early nature of Generative A.I. and what its agents can do. As they get better some industries, freelancers and tasks will never be the same again.

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Read the recent article by the FT if you have a subscription with them, exploring the impact of A.I. on white collar jobs:

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